Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 109400.104573 115195.761652 120982.032098 127188.684070 133653.915966 140186.208618 147281.256344
2025-10-19 100181.371191 109075.684592 118194.036811 128229.619555 138953.098713 150056.848065 162411.954651
2025-10-26 93025.713072 104008.461061 115505.795279 128416.471525 142486.719250 157332.210998 174156.235564
2025-11-02 87698.307050 100260.788952 113643.715865 128924.151745 145849.075529 163982.356031 184839.655604
2025-11-09 82971.367256 96742.732449 111640.945771 128901.016629 148289.566168 169338.880639 193860.412395
2025-11-16 79758.741979 94641.056039 110962.356123 130115.448103 151897.480927 175819.405602 203996.637846
2025-11-23 76117.017186 91821.193688 109265.646459 129983.330701 153815.817334 180269.486812 211746.267712
2025-11-30 74012.611410 90621.860928 109285.516721 131690.208712 157727.551613 186902.624667 221929.900134
2025-12-07 71774.243614 89136.211986 108860.390702 132779.508313 160844.931353 192571.862628 230982.731415
2025-12-14 69134.449732 87051.792506 107624.459504 132818.366748 162654.045012 196669.489971 238181.374537
2025-12-21 66946.427423 85406.491255 106816.248824 133278.246527 164888.160162 201212.811041 245873.487372
2025-12-28 65909.345306 85088.962510 107536.736266 135513.805562 169194.909592 208175.377193 256420.768718
2026-01-04 64620.267342 84434.386093 107838.972916 137253.991747 172943.803767 214542.942954 266371.195575
2026-01-11 62979.501319 83286.508928 107494.358929 138173.409893 175685.898170 219716.648634 274932.891744
2026-01-18 61054.815341 81715.334655 106570.335533 138330.577281 177462.749696 223712.142970 282082.512336
2026-01-25 59432.408995 80464.431247 105988.304890 138861.001448 179658.886364 228192.732442 289817.302703
2026-02-01 57634.145696 78929.219758 104997.625952 138834.403010 181130.733509 231771.422493 296453.349530
2026-02-08 56559.753593 78280.922250 105084.200218 140124.505144 184213.107174 237309.706303 305495.031667
2026-02-15 54881.179136 76798.114125 104068.336828 139984.015864 185480.617320 240604.203520 311785.414353
2026-02-22 54173.774915 76554.405945 104607.653039 141797.646234 189190.600626 246917.458295 321823.643494
2026-03-01 53212.974616 75944.122401 104649.234760 142954.948522 192062.624015 252196.351857 330605.045500
2026-03-08 51812.985224 74709.698770 103847.476280 142996.230009 193495.065657 255670.557127 337145.828403
2026-03-15 50666.610150 73780.490434 103412.422324 143484.788381 195479.334694 259828.909820 344551.593419